Dollar Set for Weekly Gain as Traders Assess U.S. Rates; Yen Fluctuates
The dollar is on track to break a two-week losing streak, supported by U.S. labor and manufacturing data that have traders speculating on potential Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.
Yen Fluctuations and Market Interventions
The yen experienced volatility, trading at 157.24 per dollar after reaching a six-week high of 155.375. This movement follows suspected interventions by Tokyo, which might total nearly 6 trillion yen, as per Bank of Japan data.
Japan’s core consumer prices accelerated for the second consecutive month in June, raising market expectations of a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan. The central bank, having exited negative rates and bond yield control in March, is seen possibly hiking rates at its upcoming meeting.
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Despite these developments, the yen has depreciated over 10% against the dollar this year, impacted by the significant interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan. It hovered around 38-year lows earlier this month, prompting suspected intervention by Tokyo.
U.S. Economic Data and Federal Reserve Speculations
In the U.S., the latest labor market data showed a higher-than-expected increase in unemployment benefit claims, yet the overall labor market remains steady. The dollar index, which measures the currency against six major rivals, was at 104.21, recovering from a four-month low of 103.64 and set for a 0.16% weekly gain.
The Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting at the end of July has traders anticipating a minimal chance of rate cuts. However, a 25 basis points rate cut is fully priced in for the Fed’s September meeting. Ryan Brandham from Validus Risk Management noted the U.S. economy is nearing the point where a rate cut might be justified, but the Fed remains cautious to prevent reigniting inflation.
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San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly emphasized the need for more confidence in inflation trends before considering rate cuts, underscoring the absence of price stability currently.
Euro and Other Major Currencies
The euro remained stable at $1.0893 in early Asian trading following a 0.4% drop after the European Central Bank held rates steady without clear guidance on future moves. The euro had earlier touched a four-month high of $1.0947. Market expectations include over two rate cuts by the Fed and just under two by the ECB by year-end, positioning the euro advantageously for the remainder of the year.
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Sterling held steady at 1.2942 after a 0.5% decline, influenced by slower wage growth data in Britain. Despite this, the pound reached a one-year high on Wednesday and has gained 1.7% year-to-date.
Commodity-Linked Currencies
The Australian dollar dipped by 0.11% to $0.66985, while the New Zealand dollar decreased by 0.22% to $0.6032.
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Conclusion
As traders continue to navigate the economic data and central bank signals, the dollar’s performance remains a key focus, with significant implications for global markets. The interplay between U.S. rate speculations and yen interventions highlights the complexities in the current economic landscape.
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