Amidst recent market turbulence following notable market days dubbed as Manic Monday, Terrible Tuesday, and Whopper Wednesday, a survey conducted by Moneycontrol reveals insights from 24 market experts across various domains including brokerages, mutual funds, portfolio management services (PMS), alternative investment funds (AIF), and traders.
The consensus among the experts suggests a potential further dip in the Nifty index from its current levels, primarily attributed to concerns surrounding policy paralysis and potential disappointments in earnings. However, amidst this cautious sentiment, the majority of experts—about two-thirds—remain optimistic, foreseeing a temporary downturn with the market poised to close higher by the end of the calendar year. Currently, the Nifty is hovering around the 23,000 mark.
The survey indicates that 67 percent of respondents anticipate the Nifty to witness a downward trajectory before hitting its low for the year, while an almost identical percentage, 66 percent, predict a year-end closure above the 23,000 mark. Interestingly, half of the experts foresee the Nifty ending the calendar year between 23,000 and 25,000, signaling a potential 9 percent increase at the upper end, with 16 percent anticipating a close above 25,000.
Conversely, a cautious sentiment is prevalent, with 17 percent of respondents predicting a range between 21,000 and 23,000, indicating a potential downside of 9 percent, and 12 percent foreseeing a closure below 21,000. Despite the Nifty’s year-to-date gain of 5.68 percent, concerns regarding policy stagnation and a slowdown in earnings loom large, posing significant risks to market stability.
Interestingly, while 46 percent of respondents perceive current valuations as expensive, the remaining 54 percent deem them reasonable, with none characterizing the market as cheap. Furthermore, 83 percent of experts express reluctance in augmenting their exposure to the public sector undertakings (PSU) segment, following its recent volatility.
Sector-wise, FMCG, pharmaceuticals, private banks, automotive, capital goods, and information technology (IT) sectors continue to garner favor among the majority of respondents. Additionally, 65 percent of experts opine that mid-cap and small-cap stocks may not outperform their large-cap counterparts in the ongoing calendar year.
In terms of foreign investor sentiment, opinions remain divided, with 52 percent believing that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) will conclude the calendar year as net buyers. However, uncertainties persist, indicating a potentially volatile trajectory ahead for investors.